Opening Remarks at ADB Regional Study on the Economics of Climate Change in SE Asia, 29 October 2009
I am delighted to address you all at this Roundtable Discussion on the Asian Development Bank’s review of the Economics of Climate Change in South East Asia.
For a long time, climate change was seen by some as an issue for scientists, environmentalists and – perhaps - evangelists. Now, anyone who follows current affairs will know that the issue is far from abstract.
And scientists tell us the worst is yet to come.
If we remain on a “business as usual” path of economic development, there is a 75% chance that global temperature will rise by 2-3 degrees over the next 50 years. The likely consequences will include sea-level rise, extreme weather, falling crop yields and a massive displacement of populations.
Practical examples of the physical impacts are easy to find. Increasingly violent cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes will continue to affect millions more than before - including countries in South East Asia. Recent experiences here in the Philippines have served as sharp reminders of just how devastating nature can be. As Sir John Holmes, the UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator, said last week during his visit to the Philippines, “Climate Change is not a future threat, it is a current problem.”
It is not just TV pictures that are changing perceptions. The Stern Review was one of the key documents that helped to shift international perceptions of the climate change challenge. The Review, which was commissioned by the British Government and published in late 2006, was the most comprehensive assessment to date of the economic challenges of climate change, and how they can be met.
Anybody who works on climate change will be aware of the key findings of the Review – particularly that it makes economic sense to tackle climate change now, and not wait until later, when action will be more expensive.
I think it is safe to say that the British Government did not anticipate just how profound an impact the Stern Review would have. There has been so much interest that the Stern team, based at our Department of Energy and Climate Change, continues to exist. It works closely with Lord Stern to develop further analysis on the economics of climate change; to disseminate the Review's findings; and to provide advice to other regions involved with similar work.
It is therefore excellent that the Stern team has been able to work closely with the Asian Development Bank on this review for South East Asia. The report launched last 28 April is a thorough analysis of the climate change challenges that are faced in the region – and the possible options that Governments can adopt. I am sure that, like the original Stern Review, it will have a major impact on policy discussion throughout the region.
Its timing is critical. The international community will meet in Copenhagen in December to agree a new treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol. The UK is working hard to ensure success. We want :
- an agreement that is ambitious, by limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius;
- an agreement that is effective, by driving investment in clean energy, sustainable forestry and adaptation;
- and an agreement that is fair, by providing sufficient finance, technology and capacity building for developing countries to take action on both mitigation and adaptation.
The new 4 degree map released by the British Government last Thursday shows categorically how each region of the world will be affected if we carry on with business as usual. These impacts could happen as soon as the 2060s.
Further, the UK understands the need for public and private finance to enable developing countries to make a transition to sustainable low carbon economies. Hence, Prime Minister Gordon Brown has called for $100 billion annually to be provided by 2020.
The world cannot afford failure at Copenhagen. With so many countries vulnerable to climate change, the lives of millions in developing countries are at stake physically and economically. The good news is that countries like China and India are already taking steps to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
But while the Copenhagen talks are crucial, those negotiations – and their outcome – need to be supported by concrete action on the ground. Action to transform societies to a low carbon economy.
Seizing the opportunity to adapt our economies to meet the challenges of climate change by climate-proofing future development, and shifting our development model onto a low-carbon path is increasing becoming important.
The Philippines is showing leadership in the region with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo signing two significant laws -- the Renewable Energy Law and the recent Climate Change Law creating a Climate Change Commission. And a number of activities are now happening such as the National Conference on Climate Change Adaptation +2 which concluded yesterday. These are welcome developments showing the Philippines’ commitment to addressing climate change.
Since its launch, the ADB’s report has had positive responses. But we wanted to make sure that as many people as possible were aware of the findings. This roundtable discussion is an opportunity for your organisations to maximise the benefits as raised in the report.
We hope that the report can help your organisations take on the opportunities presented by initiating the transition towards a low-carbon economy.
We all have a part to play in tackling the challenges of climate change and achieving the goal of a low carbon economy. Even as we adapt to the changes in climate, we can and must make the low carbon shift now. In December we have the opportunity to define a shared future. Today, we have the opportunity to define our contributions to that future.
